One of the overriding central messages to TSMC’s Technology Symposium this week is that the corporate is a world chief in semiconductor manufacturing, particularly at the forefront course of expertise. To additional hit the message house, TSMC showcased a slide indicating the place it stands in relation to others: by utilizing a mix of public ASML statements and their very own inside buy sheets, TSMC predicts that they’ve ~50% of all of the lively EUV machines put in worldwide. Beyond that, the corporate additionally has plenty of ~60% for cumulative EUV wafer manufacturing.
Current recognized public EUV processes from the large fabs embody TSMC’s 7+ and N5, in addition to Samsung’s 7LPP (and something under), with Intel’s EUV efforts solely getting into in its personal 7nm portfolio subsequent yr. Anything past these processes at the forefront will proceed to increase EUV use. EUV machines sometimes have a decrease throughput, anyplace from 120-175 wafers per hour, than common DUV machines which might attain 275 wph on the newest variations, nevertheless since 1 layer of EUV sometimes replaces 3-Four layers of DUV, the throughput is increased, however nonetheless the need to scale out to a number of EUV machines to extend the bodily variety of wafers is a eager goal for these foundries.
The solely firm that makes EUV machines is ASML, and the corporate publically pronounces what number of machines it sells annually. The particulars are as follows:
| ASML’s EUV Shipments | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||||||||
| Actual | 2 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 9 | – | – | – | ||
| Target | – | – | – | 20 | 30 | 35 | 45-50 | |||||||||||
| 2018 and past is cut up per quarter for precise shipped numbers Data taken from ASML’s Financial Reports |
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Note that every yr thus far, ASML hasn’t fairly hit its targets, however has carried out close to sufficient, though gross sales in Q1 2020 had been decrease than I might anticipate, indicating that by finish of Q2 2020, ASML has solely shipped 13 out of the proposed 35 methods. These numbers embody all of the several types of Twinscan NXE machines that ASML has constructed, with the newer ones having higher throughput (and typically the older ones get retrofitted). As of the top of Q2 2020, we predict that ASML has shipped round 71 of those EUV machines, and can seemingly hit 90 by the top of 2020. Some observers have famous that ASML could have a backlog of as many as 49 EUV scanner orders, even with these cargo targets.
If ASML has shipped 71 machines, that might imply, based on TSMC’s numbers, the corporate has round 30-35. Note that TSMC’s numbers are for ‘Installed EUV’ machines – we realized from our journey to GlobalFoundries in Q1 2018 that it takes as much as 6 months from getting the elements to calibrating the machine to be used. At current, a few of these foundries subsequently have EUV machines sitting round ready to be put in, or within the case of Intel, maybe solely in use for early testing or pre-risk trials. We know that GlobalFoundries had two early EUV machines, put in one, however ended up promoting each when it determined to not pursue forefront 7nm, and SMIC ordered one however so far as we all know it wasn’t put in because of restrictions imposed by the US.
As TSMC grows its Fab 18 for N5 manufacturing, and ramps its EUV integration, will probably be attention-grabbing to see if TSMC is ever restricted by the variety of machines it has. At some level Intel goes to need to purchase a quantity when it deploys its 7nm processes (I’ve seen predictions that Intel has not less than ~10 machines already, however I can’t verify that) as effectively, so there could be a tussle for who will get their order delivered first.
One factor is for certain nevertheless, ASML is sitting fairly proper within the center with a monopoly on the whole lot. I…
