Following the magnitude 7.2 earthquake that struck Taiwan on April 3, 2024, there was instant concern over what influence this might have on chip manufacturing throughout the nation. Even for a well-prepared nation like Taiwan, the tremor was the strongest quake to hit the area in 25 years, making it no small matter. But, in response to analysis compiled by TrendForce, the influence on the manufacturing of DRAM won’t be important. The market monitoring firm believes that Taiwanese DRAM business has remained largely unaffected, primarily because of their sturdy earthquake preparedness measures.
There are 4 reminiscence makers in Taiwan: Micron, the only member of the “big three” reminiscence producers on the island, runs two fabs. Meanwhile among the many smaller gamers is Nanya (which has one fab), Winbond (which makes specialty reminiscence at one fab), and PSMC (which produces specialty reminiscence at one plant). The examine discovered that these DRAM producers shortly resumed full operations, however needed to throw away some wafers. The earthquake is estimated to have a minor impact on Q2 DRAM manufacturing, with a negligible 1% influence, TrendForce claims
In reality, as Micron is ramping up manufacturing of DRAM on its 1alpha and 1beta nm course of applied sciences, it will increase bit manufacturing of reminiscence, which is able to positively have an effect on provide of commodity DRAM in Q2 2025.
Following the earthquake, there was a short lived halt in quotations for each the contract and spot DRAM markets. However, the spot market quotations have already largely resumed, whereas contract costs haven’t absolutely restarted. Notably, Micron and Samsung ceased issuing quotes for cellular DRAM instantly after the earthquake, with no updates supplied as of April eighth. In distinction, SK hynix resumed quotations for smartphone clients on the day of the earthquake and proposed extra average worth changes for Q2 cellular DRAM.
TrendForce anticipates a seasonal contract worth improve for Q2 cellular DRAM of between 3% and eight%. This average improve is partly because of SK hynix’s extra restrained pricing technique, which is more likely to affect general pricing methods throughout the business. The earthquake’s influence on server DRAM primarily affected Micron’s superior fabrication nodes, probably resulting in an increase in ultimate sale costs for Micron’s server DRAM, in response to TrendForce. However, the precise path of future costs stays to be seen.
Meanwhile, DRAM fabs outdoors of Taiwan have none been straight affected by the quake. This consists of Micron’s HBM manufacturing line in Hiroshima, Japan, and Samsung’s and SK hynix’s HBM strains in South Korea, all of that are apparently working with enterprise as ordinary.
In normal, the DRAM business has proven resilience within the face of the earthquake, with minimal disruptions and a fast restoration. The ample stock ranges for DDR4 and DDR5, coupled with weak demand, recommend that any slight worth elevations attributable to the earthquake are anticipated to normalize shortly. The solely potential outlier right here is DDR3, which is nearing the top of its industrial lifetime and manufacturing is already reducing.
