- Register
- Login
24°C
- Article
- . (0)
- Related content
Worldwide PC shipments are forecast to decline by 6.4% on year in 2016, according to an updated forecast from the IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. This is an improvement over August’s projection for a decline of 7.2% in 2016. While IDC’s outlook for 2017 remains at negative 2.1% on-year growth, the absolute volumes are slightly higher based on stronger 2016 shipments.
The third quarter of 2016 saw an on-year decline in shipments of 4.6%, more than two percentage points ahead of expectations. Although factors such as the transition to Windows 10 played a role, the third quarter of 2016 gains came largely as a result of stronger momentum in the US, Western Europe, and Japan, and were driven by channel build up in anticipation of component shortages in areas such as display panels and storage. This is expected to slightly boost shipments into early 2017, but will not carry into later periods.
Beyond 2016, the PC shipment outlook has been raised slightly, and continues to trend toward stabilization with modest commercial growth starting in 2018. Commercial notebook shipments are expected to grow during 2016 and throughout the forecast, with a peak at 3.7% in 2019. Commercial desktop growth is expected to be effectively flat by 2018, while consumer notebook and desktop shipments are expected to decline slightly throughout the forecast.
Competition from tablets and smartphones continues to ease as those markets mature. Nevertheless, overlap in usage and converging designs is accelerating the shift in notebooks to ultra slim and convertible designs, which are now expected to account for almost 63% of notebook shipments by 2020. Combining detachable tablets with PCs, the market is projected to decline by 3.2% in 2016 with small positive growth in later years.
"The PC market continues to perform close to expectations," said Loren Loverde, vice president, Worldwide Tracker Forecasting and PC research. "Some volatility in emerging regions is being offset by incremental gains in larger mature markets while the interaction with tablets and phones is stabilizing. We continue to see steady progression toward smaller desktops and notebooks as replacement buying helps stabilize overall shipments in the coming years."
"Despite continued weakness in the consumer segment, the US PC market is showing some signs of stability in the near future with some sources of optimism for the long haul," said Neha Mahajan, senior research analyst, Devices and Displays. "Backed by early Windows 10 transitions that are expected to boost commercial PC shipments in the next couple of years, and steady growth of PCaaS (PC as a Service) which should help shorten refresh cycles of commercial systems in the long-term, the overall US PC market sentiment certainly seems to be improving."
|
IDC: PC shipments by product category and region, 2016 and 2020 (m units) |
||||||
|
Product category |
Region |
2016 shipments |
Market share |
2020 shipments |
Market share |
5-year CAGR |
|
Desktop |
Mature |
39.1 |
15.1% |
30.6 |
12.3% |
(5.9%) |
|
Emerging |
64.4 |
25% |
62.5 |
25% |
(0.7%) |
|
|
Desktop total |
|
103.5 |
40.1% |
93.1 |
37.2% |
(2.6%) |
|
Notebook |
Mature |
87.0 |
33.7% |
83.5 |
33.4% |
(1%) |
|
Emerging |
67.7 |
26.2% |
73.4 |
29.4% |
2% |
|
|
Notebook total |
|
154.7 |
59.9% |
156.9 |
62.8% |
0.4% |
|
Total PC |
Mature |
126.1 |
48.8% |
114.1 |
45.7% |
(2.5%) |
|
Emerging |
132.1 |
51.2% |
135.9 |
54.3% |
0.7% |
|
|
Grand total |
|
258.2 |
100% |
250.0 |
100% |
(-0.8%) |
Source: IDC, compiled by Digitimes, November 2016
- Wireless broadband developments in Southeast Asia markets
As of 2013, the 10 ASEAN nations had a total of over 700 million mobile subscriptions, with the CAGR from 2003-2013 reaching 24%. This Digitimes Research Special Report analyzes the various mobile broadband markets in ASEAN and looks at the respective trends in 4G LTE development for those markets.
- 2015 global tablet demand forecast
This Digitimes Research Special Report provides a 2015 forecast for the global tablet market and analyzes the strategies of key market players such as Google, Apple, Intel, and Microsoft.
- 2015 China smartphone panel trend forecast
This Digitimes Research Special Report analyzes the strategies of key China-based major panel makers BOE, Tianma and IVO for attacking the different market segments through technology and pricing, and their relationship to local vendors Huawei, Lenovo, ZTE, Xiaomi and Coolpad.
