TrendForce signifies that the migration to the 1XX-L processes has not been continuing as easily and quickly as anticipated for pocket book SSDs throughout 1Q21. The testing and approval of 1XX-L merchandise by PC OEMs has truly fallen not on time, so the majority of demand is staying with the 92/96L processes fairly than shifting towards the extra superior stacking processes. At the identical time, clients in different utility segments are nonetheless focusing their demand on the 92/96L processes in addition to the 64L processes. Consequently, the NAND Flash market is now seeing a basic tightening of provide. Wafers are the primary to be affected by this flip of occasions since this product class is low on precedence for suppliers. As suppliers curb the amount of wafers so as to meet the rising demand from different purposes, contract costs of wafers are beginning to show a extra secure pattern. In truth, some suppliers are elevating quotes for wafers this February. Based on this newest growth, TrendForce has revised its projection of wafer costs for 1Q21. The earlier projection predicted a QoQ decline of 10-15%, whereas the most recent projection signifies that costs will maintain comparatively regular from 4Q20.
Looking forward to 2Q21, clients within the information heart and server segments are anticipated to generate a stronger procurement momentum. NAND Flash suppliers will subsequently consider assembly the demand for enterprise SSDs and pay much less consideration to the wafer phase. However, the amount of orders from module homes will likely be considerably muted as a result of affect of the continuing scarcity and worth hike for NAND Flash controller ICs. As each provide and demand grow to be weakened, NAND Flash wafer costs are thereby anticipated to stay principally flat for 2Q21.
ICs within the upstream provide chain, nonetheless, stay in extreme scarcity. As such, though NAND Flash suppliers have been placing forth a full effort to meet the demand for shopper SSDs, they are going to nonetheless must watch out for the likelihood that precise pocket book cargo might fall in need of expectations as a result of an uneven distribution within the provide of uncooked supplies. Furthermore, ought to the pandemic grow to be regularly alleviated in 2H21, the worldwide pocket book demand might start approaching pre-pandemic ranges, in flip main PC OEMs to revise their enterprise plans accordingly. TrendForce subsequently believes that uncertainties will nonetheless exist within the NAND Flash market in 2H21.
With regards to the NAND Flash wafer market, the present brief provide could be attributed to the truth that demand is especially targeted on sure particular product generations. The decline in NAND Flash wafer costs in 1H21 is thus drastically narrowed, whereas demand from principally the server facet can even present some upward momentum for NAND Flash wafer costs afterwards. However, Micron will ramp up its 176L merchandise ranging from 3Q21. As these merchandise have been considerably improved when it comes to price, and the primary NAND Flash purposes can have transitioned to merchandise with larger layer counts by then, the affect on NAND Flash wafer costs in 2H21 stays to be seen.
