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Significant and noticeable IC market growth is closely tied to significant worldwide GDP since 2010, with worldwide economic growth being the primary influencer of IC industry growth, according to IC Insights
Previously, market analysts had looked at capital spending, IC industry capacity, and IC pricing as characteristics that drove IC industry cycles but since 2010 factors such as interest rates, oil prices, and fiscal stimulus are the primary drivers of IC market growth, IC Insights noted.
Moreover, IC Insights forecasts similar restrained annual growth rates for worldwide GDP and the IC market through 2021.
Concerning worldwide economic growth (GDP) since 1980, the annual worldwide GDP growth has averaged 2.8%. The average annual worldwide GDP growth rate has declined every decade since the 1960s with a slight rebound forecast to be registered in the first seven years of the current decade, IC Insights indicated.
Worldwide GDP growth of 2.5% or less is currently considered by most economists to be indicative of a global recession, which puts 2016’s growth right at the threshold. The 2017 global growth rate is forecast to come in only slightly better at 2.6%. Prior to the late 1990s, when emerging markets like China and India represented a much smaller share of the worldwide economy, a global recession was typically defined as 2.0% or less growth. The global recession threshold has never been a "hard and fast" rule, but the guidelines discussed here are useful for this analysis, IC Insights explained
Worldwide GDP growth rates are also expected to range from 2.5% to 3.0% from 2016 through 2021. IC Insights expects the IC market to mirror the narrow range of worldwide GDP growth with forecasted growth rates ranging from a low of 2% to a high of 7% through 2021.
Given the tight correlation between annual worldwide GDP growth rates and IC market growth rates, IC Insights believes that a significant and noticeable IC market cycle will not occur through 2021 unless there is a significant departure from trend, up or down, for worldwide GDP growth.
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