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IC Insights has raised its 2016 IC market forecast to 1% growth from negative 2%, and its 2016 IC unit volume shipment growth rate forecast from 4% to 6%. A large portion of this revision is due to a strengthening DRAM market, according to the research firm.
Although the average third quarter sequential increase in the worldwide IC market since 2002 has been 8%, third-quarter 2015 growth rate was barely positive at a 1% increase. However, third-quarter 2016 results were slightly above the past 15-year average and posted a strong 9% jump, IC Insights indicated.
Looking into the fourth quarter, the IC market is forecast to climb to US$76.9 billion, a new quarterly record high, surpassing the previous high of US$76.7 billion posted in the fourth quarter of 2014, IC Insights said.
The average second half versus first half of the year growth rate in the IC market since 1990, including the forecast for 2016, is 8.9%. However, IC Insights is forecasting that the second-half 2016 IC market will be up 12.3% as compared to the first half, a strong turnaround from the extremely poor second half result of negative 1.2% posted during the same period in 2015 and the highest second half growth rate since 2009.
With expectations for slightly better worldwide GDP growth in 2017 as compared to 2016 and continued firming of both DRAM and NAND memory prices, IC Insights believes that the worldwide IC market will grow by 4% in 2017.
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