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With HTC, Samsung Electronics, Oculus and Google keenly developing hardware devices and related software solutions, the virtual reality (VR) industry looks promising. But not all industry watchers are confident about the business prospects for headed-mounted display (HMD) VR devices.
Looking from an optimistic point of view, some market research firms have predicted that the combined market size of VR and AR (augmented reality) products will reach US$150-200 billion by 2020, while the production value of hardware devices alone will total US$110 billion.
Shipments of Google’s CardBoard devices have reached nearly five million units, as shipments of the HTC Vive, Oculus Rift and Samsung Gear VR have also continued growing.
For HMD VR devices, the HTC Vive leads comparable products in terms of hardware specifications currently. Over 48.6% of VR software developers said they will choose the Vive as a development platform, followed by Oculus Rift and Gear VR. However, another 29% said they are developing apps for Google Cardboard at the moment and 14.6% are developing applications for Google Daydream.
However, the pessimists are more cautious, citing the development of Google Glass as an example. A survey conducted by a market research firm found that nearly 80% of Google Glass users said they don’t use the Glass any more after using the device for about six months.
The conservatives wonder if a similar scenario will happen to HMD VR devices and therefore impede the development of the VR industry.
Since most HMD VR devices available currently are designated mainly for business and household uses, the possibility is high for a number of their functionalities to be incorporated into smartphones in the future. If that happens, sales of HMD VR devices will be limited, and the current business model for VR products will have to be revamped.
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